China’s wages still have enough room to rise 千里送鹅毛下一句

China wages still have enough room to rise the sina finance opinion leader column (WeChat public kopleader) column agency Pangu think tank author Ye Qing (Zhongnan University of Economics and Law School of finance professor [micro-blog], Pangu think tank academic committee member, deputy director of the Bureau of Hubei) starting in the global times, labor productivity, so that enterprises have the ability to raise the digestion cost. Business owners do not have much pressure on this, because rising wages can become an economic force. The key is to resolve the pressure of rising wages with emerging profits. Even in the most excess production capacity of steel, cement, electrolytic aluminum and other industries, but also through mergers, change, go out and other ways to resolve. Chinese wages have enough room to rise in February 19th, "China economy 50 forum 2016 annual meeting, Lou Jiwei said: the protection of enterprise labor contract law is seriously insufficient, largely reducing the Chinese labor market flexibility, is not conducive to the improvement of total factor productivity, and ultimately hurt or workers. In the eyes of Lou Jiwei, Minister of finance, in recent eight years, China’s wage growth rate has exceeded two or three percentage points of labor productivity, making China’s competitiveness more and more inadequate. In recent years, some research reports predict that China’s overall wage level will rise by 8% in 2016, ranking the first in the world, causing heated public opinion. The author believes that the wage increase in the range of 5% to 10%, in line with the real situation of China’s economy. First, the overall macroeconomic stability is good for the wage increase to provide enough space. In recent years, although China’s overall wage level is still rising, but GDP is still maintained steady and rapid growth. Although China’s economic growth rate last year was only 6.9%, it was the lowest in 6 years. However, last year, the number of new employment in cities and towns in China for more than fifth years was more than 12 million; the registered unemployment rate in cities remained at about 4.1%, which was below 5% of the control objectives. Last year, the per capita disposable income of the national residents was 21966 yuan, after deducting price factors, the actual growth of 7.4%. The per capita disposable income of urban and rural residents increased by 6.6% and 7.5%, respectively. This is due to the third industry to provide jobs and salaries increased, making the third industry added value last year accounted for the proportion of GDP rose to 50.5%, higher than the second industry 10 percentage points. Economy turns from industry leading to service leading. The base of "wage increase" has shifted to the service industry in china. Two, food and other necessities of the people’s livelihood prices rose significantly. Last year, consumer prices rose by 1.4%, or 0.6 percentage points lower than in 2014, much lower than the expected target of 3% in the year, but also set a new low price rise since 2010. Although CPI is so low, but for low-income people, every day "food and clothing, medicine" is rising. Last year, food prices rose 2.3%, clothing prices rose 2.7%, health care and personal goods rose by 2%. In food prices, food prices rose 2%, pork prices rose 9.5%, fresh vegetable prices rose 7.4%..

中国工资水平仍有足够上涨空间   文 新浪财经意见领袖专栏(微信公众号kopleader)专栏机构 盘古智库 作者 叶青(中南财经政法大学[微博]财税学院教授、盘古智库学术委员、湖北统计局副局长)首发于环球时报   劳动生产率的提升,使得企业有能力消化涨工资带来的成本。企业主对此不要有太大压力,因为涨工资可以成为一种经济动力。应对的关键是用新兴利润化解涨工资的压力。即使是在产能最为过剩的钢铁、水泥、电解铝等行业,也可通过合并、转行、走出去等方式来化解。 中国工资水平有足够上涨空间   2月19日,在“中国经济50人论坛2016年年会”上,楼继伟说:劳动合同法对企业的保护严重不足,很大程度上降低了我国劳动力市场的灵活性,不利于提高全要素生产率,最终伤害的还是劳动者。在财政部部长楼继伟看来,最近八年,我国工资增长率超过劳动生产率两三个百分点,使得我国竞争力越来越不足。   近日也有研究报告预测,2016年中国总体工资水平将上涨8%,增幅位列全球第一,引发舆论热议。笔者认为,工资涨幅在5%至10%区间,符合中国经济真实现状。   一是宏观经济总体“平稳向好”为工资上涨提供足够空间。近年来,虽然中国总体工资水平仍然在不断上涨,但国内生产总值仍然保持平稳较快增长。虽然中国去年的经济增长率只有6.9%,是6年来最低的。但是,去年我国连续第5年城镇新增就业人数在1200万以上;城镇登记失业率保持在4.1%左右,低于5%的控制目标。去年全国居民人均可支配收入21966元,扣除价格因素同比实际增长7.4%。城镇和农村居民人均可支配收入实际同比增长分别为6.6%和7.5%。这都是由于第三产业提供的就业岗位与薪酬在增加,使得去年第三产业增加值占GDP比重上升至50.5%,高于第二产业10个百分点。经济由工业主导向服务业主导加快转变。中国老百姓“涨工资”的根据地转移到了服务业。   二是食品等民生必需品价格明显上涨。去年居民消费价格同比上涨1.4%,涨幅较2014年进一步回落0.6个百分点,大大低于年度3%的预期目标,也创下了自2010年以来的物价涨幅新低。尽管CPI如此之低,但对于低收入者来说,每天离不了的“衣食医”却是在上涨。去年食品价格同比上涨2.3%,衣着上涨2.7%,医疗保健和个人用品上涨2.0%。在食品价格中,粮食价格上涨2.0%,猪肉价格上涨9.5%,鲜菜价格上涨7.4%。先把别的因素放在一边,每隔两年,按照两年的物价上涨水平涨工资,也只是达到了生活水平不下降的状况。   三是人均生产率持续提高。随着高技术、“互联网+”等技术的运用,对操作工的要求越来越高,机械性、重复性的劳动程序越来越被机器人所替代,而作为机器人的管理者,其工资自然就应该提高。复杂劳动与简单劳动相比,创造的价值不一样,工资也不一样。   据统计,20世纪70年代以来工业发达国家劳动生产率的提高,约有60至80%是依靠科学技术的发展而取得的。越是经济发达,工资在成本中的比例就越高。在发达国家,工资一般会占企业运营成本50%左右,而在中国则不到10%。在发达国家,劳动报酬在国民收入中所占的比重一般在55%以上,在中国则不到42%。   因此,通过几年的努力,提高比例,也是一种供给侧结构性改革。生产率提高了,要体现在涨工资上,涨工资有钱了,才能够去消费,这一点对中低收入者来说尤其关键。去年我国最终消费支出对GDP贡献率为66.4%,比上年提高15.4个百分点。网上销售额同比增长33.3%。因此,可以这么说,涨工资,扩大消费,也是在为增加GDP做贡献。   需要强调的是,劳动生产率的提升,使得企业有能力消化涨工资带来的成本。企业主对此不要有太大压力,因为涨工资可以成为一种经济动力。应对的关键是用新兴利润化解涨工资的压力。即使是在产能最为过剩的钢铁、水泥、电解铝等行业,也可通过合并、转行、走出去等方式来化解。   (本文作者介绍:盘古智库是由中外知名学者组成的公共政策研究机构。秉持客观、开放、包容的宗旨,推行经世致用、和谐共生的理念,促进社会共识,推动经济社会持续健康发展,努力打造中国最具影响力的新智库。)   本文为作者独家授权新浪财经使用,请勿转载。所发表言论不代表本站观点。相关的主题文章: