bearish dollar yen to 105 Euro dollar bullish 长江师范学院是几本

Credit Suisse: bearish dollar yen to 105 Euro dollar bullish, Credit Suisse to 1.17 Huitong news network February 11th — (Credit Suisse) on Wednesday (February 10th) the report said, the reason is that global factors and stock market performance, the European bond market, foreign exchange market speculation based on great changes. The three month price of the euro rose to 1.17 in the past year, and the 12 month exchange rate was expected to fall to 105, which was the first time in a year and a half (since the dollar began to rise in the middle of 2014), and the dollar was clearly put against the euro and yen for the first time. The following is the key content of the Credit Suisse report: the recent stock market continues to bear pressure, MSCI global stock index has dropped by 20%, announced a bear market, the S & P 500 Index Technical bearish target points near 1600 points, this level is lower than the latest peak of 25%. The global market is interactive, and the stock market is so miserable that the foreign exchange market has also undergone a pattern change. The key changes in the foreign exchange market are as follows: 1. the market is increasingly worried that monetary policy does not work, at least in the foreign exchange market. The euro and the yen continued to strengthen in recent days. After the ECB governor Delaki hinted that there would be more easing and the BoJ introduced negative interest rate policy in January, the euro and the yen exchange rate strengthened. 2. from the spread point of view, the transaction of monetary policy differentiation has obviously ended. As Figure 1 on the left side of the "Figure 2" shows, the Japanese residents have been buying large scale foreign portfolio investment, especially to buy G10 national assets (shown in blue line); on the right in Figure 1 "Fight 3" shows, Asian filled with risk of Japanese investors withdraw funds. (chart 1: the spread of interest rates and the split of monetary policy). Last week, Swiss Credit advised to avoid trading short of the euro and the yen against the dollar. This week (February 8-12 week), Credit Suisse is the first time for a long time to rise directly to the euro and the yen for three months. At the same time, the Credit Suisse is also the first time since the dollar began to rise in the mid 2014, the first direct bearish U.S. dollar against the euro, the U.S. dollar yen market. Credit Suisse lowered U.S. dollar yen 12 month exchange rate expectations to 105. This week’s exchange rate dipped below the 2015 low of 115.85, making the forecast of the bearish dollar yen clearer. Japan’s debt yield curve responds to Japan’s negative interest rate policy. Because Japanese investors have been addicted to buying foreign assets on a large scale in the past three years, Japan’s response to Japan’s negative interest rates may pose problems. How do these events affect Credit Suisse’s expectations of the euro against the dollar? The answer is: Credit Suisse raised the euro dollar three month exchange rate is expected to reach 1.17, which is close to the August 2015 high and nearly a year’s highest level. Like the yen, the euro is now a financing currency. Like Japanese investors, European investors have been heavily involved in the purchase of overseas assets. This investment tide leads to a warming up of the risk aversion, especially when the euro area’s current-account surplus accounts for 3% of GDP. The left half of Figure 2 shows the European financial market theory

瑞信:看跌美元兑日元至105,看涨欧元兑美元至1.17   汇通网2月11日讯――瑞士信贷(Credit Suisse)周三(2月10日)报告称,其理由是基于全球股市表现、欧洲债市表现、外汇市场投机行为重要转变等因素与事实。看涨欧元兑美元三个月行情至近一年高位1.17,下调美元兑日元12个月汇率预期至105,此为一年半以来(美元2014年中期开启涨势以来)首次明确看跌美元兑欧元及日元。   以下为瑞信报告部分关键内容的呈现:   近期股市持续承压,MSCI全球股指已跌20%宣告进入熊市,标普500指数技术面看跌目标指向1600点附近,此水平较最近一个峰值低了25%。   全球市场都是联动的,股市如此悲惨的情况下,外汇市场也发生了格局上的变化。外汇市场的关键变化如下:   1. 市场越来越担心货币政策不起效用,至少外汇市场是这样。欧元和日元近期持续走强,在欧洲央行行长德拉基暗示将有更多宽松、日本央行1月引进负利率政策之后,欧元和日元的汇率反而走强了。   2.从利差角度看,对货币政策分化进行交易明显已结束。如下图1的左边“Figure 2”所示,日本居民已超大规模地买入外国投资组合资,特别是买入G10国家资产(淡蓝线所示);图1右边“Fight 3”所示,亚洲弥漫着面临日本投资者撤回资金的风险。   (图1:利差与货币政策分化交易日渐式微)   上周,瑞士信贷建议避开做空欧元和日元兑美元的交易。本周(2月8-12日当周),瑞信更是为很久以来首次直接看涨欧元和日元三个月行情。同时,瑞信也是自2014年中期美元开启涨势以来首次直接看空美元兑欧元、美元兑日元的行情。   瑞信将美元兑日元12个月汇率预期下调至105。本周汇价跌破115.85附近的2015年低点更令看跌美元兑日元的预测清晰化。日债收益率曲线全部对日本负利率政策作出反应。鉴于日本投资者在过去三年沉溺于大规模买进外国资产,日债对日本负利率的反应可能带来问题。   这些情况如何影响瑞信对欧元兑美元的预期呢?答案是:瑞信上调欧元兑美元三个月汇率预期至1.17,这接近2015年8月高点及近一年最高水平。与日元一样,欧元目前是融资货币。正如日本投资者一样,欧洲投资者已大规模参与海外资产的购买。这种投资潮导致避险情绪升温时总是利多欧元,特别是鉴于欧元区经常帐盈余占GDP的比值达3.0%。   下图2左半图显示,欧洲金融市场处在危难中,Itraxx高级市场指数(红线)、Itraxx次级市场指数(蓝线)均大幅蹿升,尤其是后者。图2右半图显示,欧元区二线国债与核心债收益率利差开始走阔,意大利-德国10年期国债利差(红线)、西班牙-德国10年期国债利差(蓝线)均从低位反弹。   (图2:欧洲金融市场指数、债市利差均走升,凸显危机与风险)   北京时间16:37,美元兑日元报111.65 68,下跌1.56%;欧元兑美元报1.1343 46,反弹0.48%。 进入【新浪财经股吧】讨论相关的主题文章: